Beware: The Recession Puzzle is Nearly Complete

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When you’re trying to break a child down so they can change their behavior, you try many things.

Most parents attempt the most direct approach first and politely ask if they can simply stop what they’re doing.

If they haven’t formed the habit yet, that might be a reasonable request to make.

Children form habits quickly since they don’t have existing ones to deal with. If they continue, the next step is usually to stress the importance of ceasing whatever it is you’re attempting to end.

Some parents raise their voices to illustrate importance while others use tone of voice or facial expressions.

If that still doesn’t do it, you level with the child depending on their age and speak to their logic and reason.

If that doesn’t do it, you need to appeal to their emotions and begin detailing what will happen if they don’t stop. At first, this could be threats, but you must soon show that there’s a price to their actions and introduce punishments.

Punishments are a world in their own right. Parents can show their children that if they continue to misbehave, they can make their lives hard in various ways: no friends, no screen time, no sweets, no bedtime story… I can go on and on.

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    If the child is already a teen, this part can get messy if they defy the punishments.

    Now, take this entire thing into the world of adults.

    At first, the FED tries to calm the public down about inflation (“it’s transitory, but we will stop juicing markets”). When that doesn’t help alleviate the matter, they make sure we understand there’s a problem (“inflation is no longer transitory”).

    If the public at large doesn’t take the issue too seriously, they do more to explain the matter (Powell’s testimonies at the Banking Committee in January 2022).

    When not enough change occurs, they begin raising interest rates and selling assets on the balance sheet.

    They hope the public doesn’t need to see much tightening before it takes it seriously, but if the public doesn’t see the problem with its current habits (like spending too much, buying expensive things, speculating on risky items, and living above their means) then the FED gets hawkish.

    At some point, it freezes industries that are sensitive to interest rates, such as tech, venture capital, and housing.

    Then, it trickles into the real economy via hiring freezes, fewer capital expenditures, less R&D, fewer expenses, and no new loans.

    We’ve already seen that…

    Systemic risks resurface (regional banks) next, and the FED understands it is playing with the limits.

    Last but not least, households and institutions that can’t continue to wait on selling their real estate and think that prices will bounce back to the highs come to grips with the present.

    This is the last hurdle. It’s the final stage of this reset that triggers the recession.

    We believe that we are here and in the months of June-September, the recession will be felt the most, but by the end of September, it will be the consensus that we are starting a recovery.

    Best Regards,

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