The recession is here. I believe that Wall Street began to price the recession into their forward-valuations, as soon as Powell gave his “retire the word transitory” speech in November 2021.

Wall Street and bond traders were able to discount the stock market for a recession a full seven months before it was actually announced, and I think that they’re also factoring that this won’t end in 2022.

It seems that persistent inflation, the war in Ukraine and supply chain bottlenecks, will take another quarter or two to grow out of.

The scope of very serious individual business leaders and corporations, as a group, that are not only warning of bad times, but acting on their words, is staggering.

I think that in the second half of the year, the misery levels will get so elevated that solutions will be introduced and implemented… the time to preserve wealth and be strategic is NOW!


This recession is very different than the one in 2008, because it is not a deflationary recession, but rather a stagflation, which means that earnings and economic activity gets eaten up by inflation.

The realization that we’re in a recession is trickling to all of the various demographics, from the elites to the destitute, and we really don’t think that Biden’s administration is capable of unraveling the major issues of the day. But from what I can see, the global adjustments being made are drastic.

From an interest level and my personal curiosity, this is, by far, the most unique period of my life. I’m consuming more content and data than at any other part of my adult life and engaged in far more quiet time than ever before.

The deeper the crisis gets, the more I am reaching inside myself to build a more refined and flexible character, as well as looking to gain wisdom from past crises.

Courtesy:, Bloomberg

As you can see, the severity of the hardship is rivaling those of the double-dip recession/Euro PIIGS default crisis, Brexit and the December 2018 mini-bear-market.

Lessons and insights, from reflecting upon H1 2022:

  1. Stock Market Truth: When resets occur, valuations can fall 50%-90% EASILY.

Therefore, never allow yourself to go below 10% cash in the account, so that you can dance on graves and acquire stocks on the cheap.

  1. Bitcoin: The asset class has no correlation with inflation.

It is an extremely volatile asset class, and next to impossible to understand either its potential or how much of your funds to allocate to it.

Look at the 2022 performance of the major cryptocurrencies:

93% Of Investors Generate Annual Returns, Which Barely Beat Inflation.

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    Courtesy:, Bloomberg

    Next, let’s talk about the greatest problem of our times… the inflation that followed the peak of globalization.

    1. Monetary Policy: Things work, until they don’t. For over a decade, central banks kept rates at zero (even negative territory) and supported financial markets and the credit didn’t birth inflation.

    The world was growing and able to absorb debt, but now it cannot support any additional stimulus.

    Now that inflation is being handled by central banks, the likelihood of hyperinflation is essentially gone and that means expectations for future inflation are vaporizing, which will be a great relief for markets.

    We believe that after the summer, it will become noticeable that CPI numbers are plateauing.

    Courtesy:, Bloomberg


    The last thing I want to address is how resets are not real measures of brains and market acumen.

    If you’re being hard on yourself for the performance of your portfolio this year, don’t be.

    If you’re satisfied that the company’s overall trajectory and the management’s abilities to meet the challenges of the day are intact, then don’t look at the daily price quotes as your measure of 2022 portfolio performance, but rather at the fundamentals of the business and how it is adjusting to the new economy.

    I remember playing basketball against an opponent who was headed to the pros.

    We tried EVERYTHING we could to stop him, switching defenders, double-teaming him, constantly re-arranging the way we played him on offense, but to no avail.

    We were outplayed and had to keep on playing an entire half.

    You can’t escape economic resets; just play your best and grow wiser…

    Resets are similar to playing a much better team; it’s hopeless, but resets aren’t the norm, they are the exception: ($30tn in unrealized equity value is gone… CLICK HERE!)

    Courtesy:, Bloomberg

    Best Regards,

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