A FALSE BREAKOUT OR A GENUINE RALLY? Alasdair Macleod’s Take on Gold’s Price Action and Fundamentals

An exciting new year for precious metals investors has already seen gold breaking above its 200-day moving average and charging towards the key $1,300 resistance level. Yet, how are investors to know whether the recent precious metals rally is for real, and not just another false breakout?

Since we are fortunate enough to have access to the best experts in the business, Portfolio Wealth Global was able to sit down and talk about precious metals with Alasdair Macleod, the Head of Research at GoldMoney, which you can access online at GoldMoney.com.

Alasdair has been a celebrated stockbroker and member of the London Stock Exchange for over four decades. His experience encompasses equity and bond markets, fund management, corporate finance, and investment strategy.

Having started his financial career as a broker in the 1970, Mr. Macleod learned about everything from corporate finance to evaluating and dealing in equities and bonds, and quickly gained experience in mining shares as well as general economics.

Courtesy: Alasdair Macleod

Within nine years, Alasdair Macleod had risen to become senior partner of his firm; subsequently, he held positions at director level in investment management, and worked as a mutual fund manager. In addition, Mr. Macleod has also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.

For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, Alasdair Macleod has been demystifying macroeconomic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man.

Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences. Now, with GoldMoney, Alasdair Macleod is able to help investors worldwide achieve wealth through sound and time-tested financial principles.

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Upon witnessing what appears to be a major breakout in precious metals, Portfolio Wealth Global asked Mr. Macleod how to gauge whether we are, in fact, seeing the start of a true bull market in gold. According to Alasdair Macleod, the first thing to know is that in terms of seasonality, the gold rally started earlier than usual.

As Alasdair explains it, for the last five years, gold has rallied from December through the early months of the following year – and it has done so quite strongly and consistently. This time around, though, the rally in gold commenced ahead of schedule.

The second thing to notice, according to Alasdair Macleod, is that gold is indeed breaking above its 200-day moving average, and it’s doing this with strong momentum. We observe that gold is moving up from a very oversold position on the futures market, which Mr. Macleod considers to be an extremely bullish sign.

Courtesy: Alasdair Macleod

However, gold might need some consolidation after such a good run, according to Alasdair Macleod. But we’re beginning to see if the 55-day moving average is moving up to make a golden cross with (i.e., breaking above) the 200-day moving average, which is likely to happen in the near future.

So, from a technical point of view, there’s the potential for a real and sustained rally in gold. On a fundamental level, there are tailwinds as well: during this time of year, there is always a strong demand for physical gold in China and India – two countries with a massive population of around two and a half billion people, according to Alasdair Macleod.

Furthermore, according to Alasdair Macleod, we can observe that a number of eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland have been accumulating physical gold; Russia and China have been adding to their gold reserves as well.

And so, both the price action and the fundamentals point to a bona fide bull market in gold. To see what else Alasdair Macleod has to say about the precious metals and other financial markets, be sure to watch his full interview with Portfolio Wealth Global. I would also like to encourage you to visit GoldMoney.com, the most trusted name in precious metals.

With your financial future in mind, Portfolio Wealth Global is proud to bring you the absolute best economic reports available today, including our guidebook to the massive gold bull market that’s coming in the near future, our play-by-play guide on how to shelter your portfolio from the impending collapse in the bond markets, along with our comprehensive Gold Market Manual with 11 different strategies for managing your portfolio during the coming economic downturn.

Best Regards,

Tom Beck
Research Partner, PortfolioWealthGlobal.com

Protect Yourself Now, By Building A Fully-Hedged Financial Fortress!

Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!

Legal Notice:
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought.Please read our full disclaimer at PortfolioWealthGlobal.com/disclaimer


Already, higher interest rates are wreaking havoc, but this is like the unknown warm-up band that plays its heart out for 45 minutes before Aerosmith takes the stage – it’s always fun to see it, but it’s not the reason you came.

At 2%, the Fed Funds Rate is certainly not zero anymore, like it has been for years, but it’s not enough to convince money managers to move to bonds. What they’re doing is parking in cash, for the time being, waiting for a slight dip, so they can resume buying shares in U.S. equities, while CEOs keep buying shares as well, creating a snowball effect, just like in 2015 and 2016.

The one main difference being that the central bank itself isn’t buying anymore.

So, unlike the 2009-2017 era, when the largest currency monopoly on the planet was helping stocks go higher, now it’s down to the legitimate players to figure out the price of equities.

As I have said before, there are still, even nine years into this bull market, cheap, quality companies, trading below fair value that can be bought right now.

This is why my personal outlook differs from that of many other prominent figures, which forecast a tumultuous market crash, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

Portfolio Wealth Global isn’t that dramatic, yet.

Our philosophy and strategy doesn’t rely on one possible scenario, regardless. In other words, we do not invest according to what we assume the future holds, but ONLY according to what the present offers.

As an investor, you and I have two primary roles:

  1. Decide the level of concentration we want in a portfolio, knowing that fewer assets mean deeper research on each holding.

The more advanced level of thought also considers the diversification among various asset classes, such as bonds, cash, private lending, art and collectibles, real estate, of course, or owning private businesses.

  1. Determine, according to the present alone, which assets offer the widest margin of safety below their intrinsic value and historical averages.

Don’t live your entire life with the annoying feeling that the USD is toast; therefore, you need to wait for the entire global system of banking, which comprises of 3 billion participating people, to collapse, to confidently place orders and own stocks.

This way of way, while always exciting, isn’t the blueprint for wealth.

The world, as a whole, continues to astound us with ways to enjoy radical wealth. In the past three months, while I toured Central America, I met many people, who envy what Americans take for granted or even despise about their country.

Remember, while the government is a plague, it is made up of people, who grew up in our own cities. These are not aliens from out of space, but people, who shaped their thoughts toward corruption and power, using values they saw in our society.

It is what it is, so our job isn’t to “fix” the world; we can only lead by example.

Right now, I’m focusing on building a database of dividend-payers, with more than an 8% yield, to invest in, as oil prices go up. This database will be comprised of securities called MLPs.

On top of that, I’m getting ready for Canada’s cannabis legalization and, finally, I’m looking at the zero-income-tax states, to see which ones are ideal for real estate investments, at the moment.

Remember, Millennials are just beginning to enter the higher brackets of salaries, buying homes, and putting money in the stock market.

Best Regards,

Tom Beck
Research Partner, PortfolioWealthGlobal.com

Pension NIGHTMARE: This Game Is RIGGED!

I’ve been holding back with this subject for months, but it’s time to address this looming crisis, since it’s a train wreck, waiting to happen.

There are two major problems for pension funds:

  1. The Numbers Don’t Work: managers over-promised and under-delivered. Now, this is not any ordinary liquidation problem – this is huge.

These pension funds hold the majority of the Baby Boomers’ retirement equities, and they have banked on this money for nearly 45 years, since they joined the workforce.

The issue is that these funds are designed to earn 8% a year, mostly by investing in fixed-income instruments, yet their mandates bar them from venturing into junk-grade bonds or riskier notes.

In other words, they must perform financial miracles, by achieving stock market returns, using low-yield bonds, which caused most of them to only return a modest 3%-4% for many years, resulting in trillions of missing funds.

Now, when massive cash withdrawals begin occurring, and word gets out that these funds are under-capitalized, clients will be knocking on their doors.

  1. Boomers Are Retiring Now: Some crises are decades away, so we can prepare for them and build secondary solutions and alternatives to face them, but this is happening now.

It’s a situation, which could lead to another government bailout, down the road.

Before this happens, though, I’d like you to start preparing for the following likely scenarios:

  1. Governments Change Retirement Laws – Europe and Japan have it even worse than the U.S., so look for politicians to postpone retirement age to 69, 73, or even further.
  2. Staying Employed – Governments will begin demanding recipients of subsidies programs to continue working in order to apply.

In the U.S. alone, 100 million people are either retired or not working.

If I decide to stop working, then my cash flowing assets would provide for a nice living for my family, but 93.2% of Americans do not have more than $10,000 of passive income coming in from assets on an annual basis.

In other words, if you’re retired in America today, there’s a 93% chance that the government is helping you.

This isn’t just the U.S., which is facing a retirement cliff. Europe and Japan have scary demographic age pyramids, and China’s One Child Policy will put them in a situation, which will be impossible to manage as well.

Thanks to technological advancements, we take for granted being cool in the summers and warm in the winters. We live longer lives than any other generation going back thousands of years, and we consume much more, enjoying the privileges of travelling the world in a matter of hours, comfortably sitting in mid-air, being served beverages and food, watching movies, and listening to music.

Refrigeration, a variety of medical procedures, and high sanitary standards allow us to prosper and stay healthy for long periods, if we choose to sleep, eat, and drink in a healthy manner.

This all comes at a great socio-economic cost, though.

Tax revenue needs to be split between the many demographic groups, who want it, as well as to sustain our existing institutions.

Pension is big business, and it’s a rigged one because it over-promises and under-delivers.

One radical approach is to retire in a more affordable region, outside of your primary residence, and it is becoming an attractive option.

Next year, I’ll be traveling to five of the best retirement regions on the planet, to gather information for my folks on where they can lead a productive life and enjoy higher standards of living in their final years.

Think creatively about your own retirement because western governments have a boot over their throats – a disproportionate amount of dependent retirees. Find your own path through this nightmare. Portfolio Wealth Global will also focus on high-yield investments (8%-12%) and outside of the box ideas for you, going forward. 

Best Regards,

Tom Beck
Research Partner, PortfolioWealthGlobal.com

Legal Notice:
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought.
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