Most People Have Never Heard of this
In orders of magnitude, it doesn’t get much bigger than the South China Sea. If you were to ask a panel of 10 of the most up-to-date geopolitical experts alive where WW3 could originate from, the vast majority of them, if not all, would point to the South China Sea on the global map.
There are many reasons for that, one of which being China’s hunger to regain full control of Taiwan, which became independent from Mainland China some decades ago, the chip manufacturing capabilities that Taiwan holds and the various maritime countries that are all U.S. allies, all connected to this region, but none of these are as important as what I’m about to share with you.
There are seven countries, which have shore lines in the South China sea: China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia.
They all make claims, as to their maritime governance over the waters of this sea and these claims OVERLAP, a lot.
China is, obviously, the most aggressive, claiming much of it to itself, creating new islands that it is arming with the latest military equipment and it also sends fighter jets, on the regular, into the air space of Taiwan, just to show them who’s boss.
But, with that said, China’s entire prominence over this region relies on a stretch of sea, not longer than 1.5 miles that is OUTSIDE of their jurisdiction and serves as a natural bottleneck that could be the equivalent of the Suez Canal for Chinese trade.
This little unknown body of water is the shortest path for trade route for containers and cargo vessels and some $3.5tn worth of goods travel in and out of it, in a given calendar year!
I’m referring to the Straight of Malacca, where 67% of China’s trade volume passes through and where a FULL THIRD of global goods pass through, along with 80% of all China’s imported oil!
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China produces a lot of oil, the 6th largest in the world, but it’s not enough to feed the beast.
It imports oil and liquified natural gas to the tune of millions of barrels a day and it cannot afford to see American influence over the Straight of Malacca, which is the reason they’ve termed this issue “The Malacca Dilemma” and have been thinking about alternatives for it since 2003, without much success.
WW3 could start with an American blockade of the Straight of Malacca, one of the most under-the-radar political areas on Planet Earth.
Keep in mind that these types of conflicts that build up over the decades are the main reasons we are bullish on commodities… in the end, there is a constant struggle for resources, chiefly energy and precious metals.
For the most part, the world operates in relative peace, which is the reason we continue to build wealth, by buying high-quality equities, but we hedge with a 10%-15% exposure to commodities.
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MSCI Inc. (MSCI), S&P Global Intelligence (SPGI), MarketAxess (MKTX), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ)
CBRE Group Inc. (CBRE), Blackstone (BX)
Cintas (CTAS), Roper Technologies (ROP), Rollins (ROL)
ServiceNow (NOW), The Trade Desk (TTD)
Resmed (RMD), Abbott Labs (ABT)
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