What the Hell Happened?!
Gold is tormenting investors by retreating $50 in a matter of hours!
It was the biggest short-term decline for gold in ages – many are confused and frustrated. How could this happen, and why now?
The decline started before the stock market had even opened for the day. The data was already out: retail sales figures improved in August, more than what Wall Street had expected.
Specifically, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted in part by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments.
The net result of all this was spike in the U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro and the yen. As a result, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose to its highest level since August 27.
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Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged as Wall Street feared that the positive retail sales data might lead to a more hawkish Fed:
On the other hand, not everybody’s freaking out now. For example, Saxo Bank’s chief investment officer, Steen Jakobsen, expects Treasury yields to “remain range-bound between 1.25% and 1.35% until next week’s FOMC meeting.”
And as far as the dollar is concerned, the chart above shows that it’s at a hard resistance level.
If the dollar falls back to earth, gold’s next move will unequivocally be to the upside.
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