Has the Dollar Peaked?
In 18 midterm election cycles since 1950, the stock market has NEVER been down a year after!
The average 2-year return has been 41% when the president is a Democrat and the House and Senate are controlled by the GOP.
As we enter 2023, the global property markets are coming back down hard, and the impact of higher rates is now certainly being felt, but I don’t think the FED is quite done yet!
From the meetings I’ve been holding with the top fund managers in the housing sector, I can tell you that everyone is freezing in place.
Millennials with small children or newly married couples are just waiting for their mortgage broker to tell them it’s safe to make an offer on a house, but as long as the FED tells you that they are still moving the goalpost, no one wants to buy equities or investment properties. Instead, they’d rather sit on cash or make loans for a fixed-income return.
It’s official: the real estate market has materially slowed.
What we now believe is that the data will begin to show that inflation has peaked and is slowly turning around. The key word here is slowly, so we believe that the FED may make some comments about getting to 3.0% as a target instead of 2.0%.
In any case, if inflation has peaked and the FED makes the slightest acknowledgment of it, this will further the rally in silver and the decline of the DXY index.
If investors no longer feel pressured to buy debt, the dollar will start to come down after its strongest performance in 22 years!
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The FED has already made public statements about the failed pivot in 1974-1975 and said they will not be making the same mistake.
The problem the FED has is that it has made its mission to get the excess jobs filtered through the system, which is basically getting people fired and has become a solution to today’s inflationary nightmare.
I wonder how many people will face a layoff and get cut back or fired before the political pressures become too great.
Either way, history tells us midterms are always bullish no matter what, with the S&P 500 returning 15% in the following 12 months for the past 18 midterm cycles.
Midterm election year stock market performance since 1962
This year, what we learned is that you don’t fight the FED on the bearish end, just like you can’t fight them when they’re pumping currency and monetizing debt.
The rush to cash is mad, and I can’t tell you how many have been telling me they’re just waiting on the sidelines.
I don’t blame them, but I’ve seen how difficult it is to time markets, so when I see value, I buy no matter what.
We will be publishing the list of our top companies again.
Research all of them…
If history is any guide, the timing is PERFECT!
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Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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