Not Indices, Stocks
One of my closest friends in high school was a terrible student and I mean just awful!
If he’d even wake up in the morning, the time would already be 10:00 AM; he would not show up before 11 AM, so by definition, he’d miss at least the first three classes of the day. This would be his routine on days that he’d actually come to school; more often than not, he was MIA.
His parents would do their best to discipline him, but he was already sixteen and couldn’t be easily restrained.
The way high schools are run today, his absence would probably be less noticed (he should have been a pupil in the pandemic; that was his calling in life).
He failed every test and was about to not receive a graduation diploma; his parents were called to school on numerous occasions — he had been suspended, threatened with expulsion, put on notice, given ultimatums that he would have to repeat 10th and 11th grades, but nothing really helped.
Every summer, he was called in to make up for all the classes he missed and pass a probation exam, after which they’d allow him to advance.
In 12th grade, in September, he took a history test and just passed; he got a 60 (56 is the threshold between failing and passing).
In my world, getting a 60 is the worst thing ever, but he was running around school, smiling cheek to cheek. He called his folks, who were both elated, and that boosted his confidence so much he even passed a few other exams right after.
Expectations were so low that just passing was celebrated, and just showing up on time and attending became a victory. That’s what’s happening in the markets now; just avoiding another Lehman Moment from this failing property developer in China would be a win.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
As you can see, historically, the S&P 500 is not a bargain at all, but that’s not telling the whole story – who cares about the S&P 500?
Between them, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon comprise 22% of the S&P 500 and 41% of the NASDAQ 100, so it is critical to understand that stock picking is where the value and opportunities are.
I am buying stocks left and right!
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There’s extreme pessimism out there and I think Wall Street is too concerned, and so is the average investor:
The last time that investors were this bearish was in October 2020 and we issued a Watch List that ended up containing more than four different companies that doubled!
The indices are done outperforming the risk-on assets, in my opinion.
This extreme pessimism means expectations now are as low as they were for my friend’s test scores in high school, so any good news will send investors back to risk-on mode.
Expectations are low and the VIX is high, so this is a recipe for a big rally. I’m going to reveal my most aggressive high risk/high reward play, and the story here is that it just entered the biggest market in the world for its products!
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Governments Have Amassed ungodly Debt Piles and Have Promised Retirees Unreasonable Amounts of Entitlements, Not In Line with Income Tax Collections. The House of Cards Is Set To Be Worse than 2008! Rising Interest Rates Can Topple The Fiat Monetary Structure, Leaving Investors with Less Than Half of Their Equity Intact!
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