This Past Week Was Insane
Two days ago, I was watching the championship game of the Milwaukee Bucks, who won their first NBA title since 1971. Right outside of the packed stadium, some 70,000 fans watched the game on large screens.
The whole city was glued to the game, hoping their team could finally fulfill their potential and win an NBA title and they did.
The Bucks have been the favorite for several years in the Eastern Conference, even ranking first in previous seasons, but they’d choked in the playoffs.
Even this series began with the Phoenix Suns taking the first two games at home, statistically making it extremely difficult to win, but the Bucks stormed back, winning four in a row, a rare achievement.
During game five, at the Suns’ home court, the Bucks had a real shot to come out on top, clinching a critical win on the road. When the score was 120-119, in favor of the Bucks, they stole the ball and their best defensive player lobbed an alley-oop to Giannis Antetokounmpo, who dunked the ball in.
Running down the floor to stop the fast break was 16-year veteran, Chris Paul. Had he done nothing, the Bucks would have had a three-point lead (122-119), yet this experienced all-star and one of the league’s most regarded players, fouled Giannis, which allowed the Greek Freak, as fans have nicknamed him, to complete a three-point play and take a commanding four-point lead.
In basketball, the difference between a three- and four-point lead is night and day.
While the team coming from three behind can score one three-pointer and tie the game, they need to score twice in order to close a four-point deficit.
Chris Paul should have known better, but in the heat of the moment, he committed a foolish foul and cost the Suns the opportunity to tie it.
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His thinking was that by fouling Giannis, he may miss the shot and perhaps one of the free throws, but the risk/reward of his decision was awful.
Always leave yourself a margin of error.
Right now, with markets rallying like crazy this week, new buyers aren’t leaving themselves much room for mistakes; they’re paying top-dollar.
When we issued our Watch Lists, for example, each stock had a proposed limit order, set for a conservative price.
Watch List 5
PayPal is now trading near all-time highs, yet we highlighted it below $180/share, which means that it’s up over 50%.
Watch List 6
Dropbox, which we showed in January 2021, is now up 38.32% year-to-date, and still has a conservative valuation, even though it’s not a bargain anymore.
The lesson is we don’t chase; we wait and pounce.
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