Powell Smacks Gold, But it Fails Once More

Highest Interest Rates Since 2001

The United States is effectively an island. Leaving out its friendly neighbors to the north and south that do not pose a threat whatsoever, the Atlantic Ocean provides a more than 5,000 km barrier between it and western Europe.

The same thing could be said about the Pacific Ocean, of which it is 8,000 km to go from San Francisco to China.

The U.S. not only has these incredible natural fortresses guarding it, but its vast plains offer the best agricultural land in the world. Its river systems are magic for logistics and supply chains, and many bays allow for the existence of ports and trade.

It’s as if nature said to this country, “if you ever become a unified nation, you’ll have everything you need to rule the Earth.”

Even better, it provides natural gas and oil, so we don’t have to go elsewhere to source it.

These factors are the ones that tell me that only internal and domestic conflicts within the United States could pose a threat to it.

The Soviets failed to challenge it, and before them were the Germans. Early on, in its formative years, the British attempted to do so but couldn’t.

With its ability to supply the European Union with oil and liquified natural gas, the United States is putting immense pressure on Russia’s military budget because at the eve of the invasion, Putin was supplying Europe with 50% of its coal, 40% of its natural gas, and 25% of its oil.

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    The Chinese, which are landlocked by the first island chain, are also struggling to make a definitive threat, but the dollar is weaponized, which forces countries to diversify.

    The weak dollar is what is allowing gold to remain near $2,000 even as the FED continues raising rates to 22-year highs!

    The reason that gold plummeted right after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday is because the market has pushed back the first rate cut from March 2024 to May 2024 and hasn’t fully discounted the option of another hike.

    Think of it from this perspective, though: when rates are this high (5.25%) and aren’t coming down materially until 2025, gold is supposed to tank, but it isn’t.

    The primary reason is dollar weakness, and we think that when the FED does cut rates, it will spark a massive rally for the metals even before May 2024 once the conviction level of the cut is priced in.

    When do we believe that will happen?

    Well, the September meeting will occur right when much of the debt in the housing sector is coming up for refinancing, so the markets will be able to determine the extent to which the economy has slowed.

    If hiring and quits are more aligned by then, we believe the FOMC meeting will indicate when the first rate cut will happen, and the metals will surge.

    We’re not sure if it will happen, but gold can still hit a new all-time high this year.

    Best Regards,

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