Gamblers Can’t Win
Russia thought it had it made; Putin’s military strategists began mobilizing troops, ammunition, artillery, medical supplies and equipment in September 2021. Ever since then, social media posts, showing the vast Russian network of railways traversing this behemoth-sized country, displayed thousands of tanks, jeeps and army-related cargo being shipped to various parts of the Ukrainian border.
Camps of hundreds of soldiers, who were supposedly training, never finished the exercises and remained in place until November, then December and January.
U.S. intelligence did not have to use any fancy spying measures; by simply monitoring social media from Russia and looking at satellite imagery you’d know Putin was up to something.
The problem that people like Putin have, in my experience, is that even his top generals are afraid of him. No one wants to tell Vladimir Putin that war might be a colossal gamble, a horrible mistake, a sin of hubris of his part.
If Putin can have your head or your job for speaking your mind, why risk your future?
His analysts modeled and simulated a 2-4 day invasion, ending with the overthrowing of the legitimate government and the installment of a puppet regime.
Russia has a mighty military force, but let me quote one of the greatest army-related sayings ever: “Infantry wins battles, infrastructure wins wars.”
Once Putin’s soldiers entered Ukraine, its civilians resisted, and using social media, they educated their ordinary, everyday folks that they don’t need to fight Russian tanks whatsoever.
Instead, they needed to dismantle fuel trucks, so the tanks wouldn’t be able to advance. Images of abandoned, out-of-fuel tanks and soldiers looting stores for food or asking locals for directions, clearly showed Russia’s army failed from a logistics standpoint.
The Ukrainians demolished bridges so that convoys were stuck, took down street signs and intercepted radio frequencies to confused and demoralize the Russians, and destroyed rail networks as well.
They wrecked the infrastructure, which has pretty much caused a stalemate. 90% of Ukrainians believe they will win, which tells you how resolved they are.
Putin gambled everything on his Yes-Men, who told him that Ukraine would fall in 2-4 nights, but they didn’t say that if that didn’t happen, he’d face an acute shortage of trucks and supplies.
Going all in, gambling your country, national currency, reputation and prestige on the world stage on one thing going right is terrible thinking.
Putin’s entire legacy has been shattered to pieces, and he will be looked at as a war criminal by a majority of the global population. Even within his own country, if free speech was allowed, he’d learn that millions are rejecting his military invasion and cruelty.
It’s tempting to go all in and gamble everything for the chance of glory, but unlike the movies, this works very rarely in real life.
Don’t be lured into taking huge speculative action; be committed to building wealth, not to striking it rich with one giant swing of the bat.
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