Ray Dalio, Leon Cooperman and Tudor Jones
One of Wall Street’s most badass activist investors is Carl Icahn. He is literally feared by Wall Street firms. He went on CNBC and said we are headed for a recession or worse. Next, Ray Dalio, the multibillionaire, came out with a 60-minute long documentary about China’s dominion over the 21st century. Now, Leon Cooperman, the teary-eyed billionaire, who was emotional about the way billionaires were portrayed by Elizabeth Warren, is also on CNBC talking about a recession.
First off, recessions are not phantoms of the imagination. The U.S. economy and other developed economies slow down and contract, from time to time.
We should all remember that recessions are not depressions.
When I was training earlier today with my coach, he really gave me a whooping. I felt tired and was ready to take a nap. My upper body and legs were exhausted and I wanted a power nap.
The U.S. economy is also running at full steam, so it looks tired, as one does at the end of a session, but the question is, will a shot of espresso and a good shower make it feel fresh and revitalized, or has it trained too hard and now needs a clean break or, worse yet, is it injured or having spasms?
It’s hard, even impossible, to know, because injuries occur abruptly, otherwise athletes would stop them in time.
As you know, world-class athletes, those who have the most amount of information on their hands, with scores of coaches, nutritionists and supporting cast around them, are still often benched for a full season. I’ve seen some of the best sports figures in history quit because of lingering injuries and it’s tragic.
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The U.S. economy is more robust, versatile and agile than a human being with his ankles, knees and shoulders. It’s not a little vulnerable physical body, but a collage of the world’s largest and most profitable companies.
It’s almost as though the more billionaires call for a recession, the less likely it is that they’re right.
Carl Icahn is 86 years old and has underperformed the S&P 500 for many years. Paul Tudor Jones has made some awful calls in recent years and Ray Dalio is way past his investing prime. His Bridgewater hedge fund has seen some disastrous years, as of late.
To answer the question, then, I believe that these billionaires are all wrong.
We’re seeing a slowdown because the economy has been training at full steam, but when you’re in top shape, the body recovers quickly from shocks.
The FED has been disciplined with its messaging in 2022 and we believe that in May, we will see a 0.50% hike. All that is really happening here, if you zoom out, is that the stock market is building a massive base and support, because with each rate hike, the market expects a recession to hit us, so more sellers pressure the prices.
This could be one of the best buying opportunities of the coming decade, when it’s all said and done.
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