The Data is Highly Confusing
We believe that it is extremely difficult to understand the macro-economic picture around the globe, because the events that are happening in the world today are very unique.
If we look at the one constant for theme after the Great Financial Crisis, it was central banks’ fear of deflation.
The deflationary forces in the economy mandated that there will be a constant “FED PUT,” a threshold of financial pain that would prompt the FED and other central banks to react.
That era concluded in March of 2020, because once the government handed out the stimulus checks with the FED’s monetary stimulus measures, the popularity of these policies reached a peak…
EVERYONE loved free money and the stock market, along with every other risk-on asset class, were bid up.
The PEAK EUPHORIA came with the January 2021 saga with Meme stocks and the power of the masses to change the equities market.
The market began discounting risk-on assets from thereon, but it took nearly 10 months, until November 4th 2021 for Powell to admit and confess that inflation is now a real issue.
The markets were ahead of the FED by 10 months and we believe that they’re already thinking a year into the future right now.
Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
As you can see from the drop of rate-hike expectations, which began with the earnings season, it is clear that small businesses are hurting… it’s not a recession, but it is a STAGFLATION.
This week, the Federal Reserve will hike by 75bps, if nothing shocking occurs and we think that, for the first time in 2022, the market will reward the FED’s action, not fight it.
It looks like Powell has caught up with market expectations, at least partially and that’s a positive sign.
Clearly, even Jamie Dimon, who was predicting a hurricane, has toned down his panic.
You can see below that rate hike expectations are peaking and gives me confidence that we’re dealing with STAGFLATION, not a classic recession.
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Courtesy: Zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
One sign that I LOVE to look at, when determining if a bear market has much more to go is INDIFFERENCE to low prices.
Clearly, stocks are much cheaper than a year ago, but hedge funds aren’t interested. They are sitting on cash…
There’s no doubt that while the FED is behind the curve, almost by design these days, the market no longer thinks the FED is delusional.
It’s also clear that capital requirements and margin calls, along with industrial slowdown, have created CAPITULATION in precious metals, but we don’t think the bottom is in…
Silver and gold need to form a true bottom and, as we’ve said before, the Q2 GDP numbers are, in our view, the event that will determine where exactly they will head.
We have not changed our cycle-high price targets for both metals and if we’re repeating the STAGFLATION playbook of 1974-1975, gold and silver need to plummet (as they are) for the inflation wave of the recovery to take them to new highs…
We believe this plunge is the last major one, before we soar.
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