Evergrande Has Not Deterred BTDers
In the Israeli army, several units are in charge of bringing in people from the Palestinian territory who are “wanted for questioning.” No, these people have not done anything wrong or committed a crime, but through surveillance and intelligence, Israel’s security forces deem this person as one who could possess valuable information and after answering questions, they’ll be sent back home.
We can debate all day about the justification or the fairness of this type of “Minority Report” preemptive action, but instead of judging Israel’s need to make sure terrorist attacks towards it don’t result in innocent lives being lost, I wanted to focus on the tactic of persuading someone to come in for an interrogation.
First, by collecting data, the IDF learns how many people reside in the house in question. Secondly, they try to get accurate proof on the types of arms and ammunition, if any, that are inside the premises.
The first rule of combat in a residential area is not to engage in it. Risk-wise, it is considered to be a nightmare; doors block the way, while cabinets, closets and trapdoors, as well other hideaways, might interfere.
Walls are another major obstacle, as well as dark rooms; it’s the home turf of the owner, not the army, and he knows the terrain much better.
The unit, tasked with putting this man on a jeep and taking him to HQ, guards the four corners of the house, in case he makes a run for it.
Then, the commander will announce himself. First, he’ll just request that this person peacefully comes out and give him sufficient time and warnings.
Anything will be tried before attempting to bust in.
They’ll continue the ultimatum – they’re not bluffing, but they’ll do whatever is humanly possible to convey the message that exiting peacefully is mutually beneficial.
It appears that just as the IDF tries to forewarn the person needed for questioning, the markets are signaling that this September Slump could turn into an October Correction.
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Like a person who doesn’t get it and continues to stay in the house, even though the army sometimes brings a bulldozer and goes the whole nine yards, investors keep buying the dip heavily. They are undeterred by Evergrande, unshaken by FED officials’ trading-around-the-bailout resignations, indifferent to the likelihood of rate hikes, tightening and tapering, and blind to the change in the risk profile of the markets, given that bullishness levels have reached similar heights as they did before all other corrections of the past decade.
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