All Bark, No Bite
I want to surgically talk about a phrase I hear often, and that is “moving the goalpost.”
The complaint I constantly hear is that the government keeps moving the goalpost, that “they’re making the rules as they go along,” or that they’re playing God and “picking who will be the winners and the losers.”
I want to put this to bed: the goalpost is NEVER standing still. In 16 years of buying and selling stocks, real estate investments, alternative assets, and off-market opportunities, I’ve yet to encounter any trend or train of thought that wasn’t turned on its head later.
Bernanke didn’t think a nationwide housing plunge was possible, and six months later, the very same person was presiding over the crisis.
Powell said that rate hikes were on autopilot until he completely U-turned in 2019.
FDIC-insured bank accounts protected up to $250,000 until they guaranteed any amount where SVB depositors were concerned.
The Federal government didn’t hand out personal checks to citizens because that’s inflationary, reckless, and creates dependency… at least until three of them were sent to every eligible recipient.
The next sacred cow to be sacrificed is the cherished “we are committed to fighting inflation and are prepared to do whatever is necessary” saying.
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What Powell really meant is that they’ll raise rates until something breaks. Something did fall apart, and that is the liquidity of regional banks, which sparks fears of further contagion.
How do I know this?
For one, gold is trading well above $1,900, which means the market is absolutely convinced that we’ve officially ended the rate hike era.
You know that just last Tuesday, the market forecasted a terminal rate of 5.75% and NO CUTS in 2023.
Now, just one week later, the reality is setting in that next week’s March meeting will be the last hike.
Yes, I think that the market really believes that a “wait and see” approach is going to be the FED’s preferred method because what the market is really shockingly projecting is a RATE CUT!
Gold didn’t soar just because the market thinks the FED will slow down hikes but because the market is starting to come to grips with the likelihood of a HARD LANDING.
It’s not hard to imagine that anymore…
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